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Title: New directions in applied general equilibrium model calibration
Author: Dawkins, Christina
ISNI:       0000 0001 3418 2138
Awarding Body: University of Warwick
Current Institution: University of Warwick
Date of Award: 1999
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This thesis develops extensions to current techniques in applied general equilibrium (AGE) model calibration that improve existing practice and expand the use of AGE modelling to economic history applications. Chapter I introduces the thesis. Chapter 2 summarizes the origin and practice of calibration in economics, focussing on its role in AGE modelling. Chapter 3 proposes two related sensitivity analysis procedures for AGE models: calibrated parameter sensitivity analysis (CPSA) and extended sensitivity analysis. Existing sensitivity techniques are incomplete because they only capture the robustness of the model's results to uncertainty in a subset of the parameters, the elasticities. The remaining parameters determine the model's static structure, but are ignored in the sensitivity literature. CPSA fills this gap. When combined with an existing elasticity sensitivity technique in 'extended sensitivity analysis,' CPSA permits sensitivity analysis with respect to uncertainty in the values of all of a model's parameters. Chapter 4 examines the significance of the data adjustments required for calibration. It proposes that the measure of this importance should be the effect of the adjustment algorithm on the statistical properties of the model results. Simulations show that the performance of various algorithms differs significantly under such criteria, and illustrate fora specific policy experiment the link between algorithm performance and the relative magnitudes of the data. The experiments imply that the choice of data adjustment procedure is an important, if neglected, component of calibration. Chapter 5 shows how AGE techniques can be adapted to explore decompositional issues in economic history. By incorporating information about the combined effect of several shocks to an economy in calibration, AGE models can quantify the relative contributions to change of each shock. Furthermore, the effects ol shocks are non-additive, so that the marginal contribution of a shock is conditional on the presence or absence of other shocks. Chapter 6 concludes.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Economic and Social Research Council
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available
Keywords: HB Economic Theory