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Title: Modelling aspects of macroeconomic behaviour in Kyrgyzstan using system dynamics.
Author: Tentieva, Gulkayr J.
ISNI:       0000 0001 3516 1689
Awarding Body: University of Sunderland
Current Institution: University of Sunderland
Date of Award: 1999
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The aim of this thesis is to consider two issues that are of particular significance for macroeconomic modelling. These are the existence of post-so'riet transitional economies and the relevance of either Post-Keynesian or Neo-Classical policy advice in the context of dynamic disorder. In this work, I use a methodology called System Dynamics. This prm'ides an alternative, interactive methodology for analysing macro-dynamics. Traditional macroeconomic tools such as Regression Analysis, Time-Series Analysis, Simultaneous Equation Models and the like require many years of unbroken data which does not exist for transitional economies. It is shmt'n that the different approach of System Dynamics can overcome these difficulties. Some of my models of the Kyrgyz Economy used quantity-rationed systems with pulse elements integrated into potential and actual excess demand levels reveal dynamic equilibria, disequilibria and the potential for chaotic behaviour. The d(tJiculties facing macroeconomic management in these conditions and the polrver of the System Dynamics modelling methodology in assisting policy formulation and evaluation are stressed. The key inSights delivered by the models discussed indicate that policy targe/cd at reducing delay lags could be beneficial in alleviating innate tendencies in this economy towards endemic disequilibria in Aggregate Supply and Demand. Morco)'er, due to the potential for chaos existing in the non-linear dynamic economic relationships inherent in the models the relevance (~lpolicy options based on cither extremc Post-Keyncsian or Nco-Classical thinking are questioned. Indeed our Post-Keynesian (zrnamic models contain non-linear dynamic tendencies, 'which parado,Yical(Y yield policy implications consistent with .Yco-Classical thinking.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available
Keywords: Transitional economies