Title:
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Trend analysis in scientometrics
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The thesis investigates the proper~es> CQftW,o,'tpeIljs or
time series which forme:! a:part of the Co,-(lj.tation ~iometr1c
model "X~Ray Crystallography ~a.n1, Pr.otein Determination in, 1978.,
1980 and 1982". This madeJ-Was ope of seveI'aJ. orea;te:l, for ~'19.83,
ABRC Science PollcyStl,Jdywhi,oh ~ to test the utility of
bibliometric modelS in a natiOnal soienoe polley context·. 'l!he
outcome of the vaJidat:l.on part of that, study pr~ to ,be
espeoia.Uyfavourahle coIlOeI'Iling 'the utilitY Qf trend da.~., which
purport to model the developnerrt of ~ty areas, in SQ,ienoe,
over tUne. This assessment QO'Ul4l, have important implioatiOI;lS' for
the use of such data in policy formulation. However one '~le
problem with the Science POlicy Study I S conolusiQr)S ~ ,tPa.:t
insufficient time was ava i 1 ahle in the study fOr an m-depth
a;na.1. ysis of the data. -
The thesis aims to conti.:nu.e the vg.lidationbegl:ln in- 'the'
ABRC study by providing a detailoo.exam:b;lationQf t1il.e ' "
characteristics of the data conta.:inaiin the 'lTetlds ~~ ,];jJ' '
ani 44 in the model. A novel methodology for' the ~¥s±S;Qib~~:,
properties of the trends with respeot to,tb.el;,rliter~-gure~~t;
is presenta:l. This is followf;rl by an assessrnei:):t',j ~,on, " ':
questionna.ire ani iIlterview data: of the Qibi'l;tyOf 'l'i"e:t',id 44, t~' ",
reaJistioall y model the bistoriQAld.evelQprneI).t Qf' the £,ie,ig'Q£.:
mobile genetic elements research, over time; witm;resp,eettQ :tts,
scientific content and the aCltivities ()f:its:~t~t ,Of' ,
researchers. ' , ,
evaluate = ~~f ~~: ~~re:~~~~i:
approach to the mQdelll:ng of the a.ctiVities ,·af:sc.tentif:iic fjle;~tc~h
A critical eva:l.~tion of the, origXbs of'. tn.e.~~, ~\tr~;'
ani weaknesses. iA the assumptions "uni~jlyipg; ~. teollrd~;~
to generate tr~ fromoo.-citationqata;, is, '1'l'<;>Vta'ej,: •. 11~.i:b1e~, .
improvements. to the modelling techniques are discussed.
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