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Title: Analysing and forecasting transitions in complex systems
Author: Piovani, Duccio
ISNI:       0000 0004 5920 9108
Awarding Body: Imperial College London
Current Institution: Imperial College London
Date of Award: 2015
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We analyse in detail a new approach to the monitoring and forecasting of the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems by application to the Tangled Nature model of evolutionary ecology and high dimensional replicator systems with a stochastic element, the Stochastic Replicator model. A high dimensional stability matrix is derived for the mean field approximation to the stochastic dynamics. This allows us to determine the stability spectrum about the observed quasi-stable configurations. From overlap of the instantaneous configuration vector of the full stochastic system with the eigenvectors of the unstable directions of the deterministic mean field approximation we are able to construct a good early-warning indicator of the transitions occurring intermittently.
Supervisor: Jensen, Henrik Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available