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Title: The impact of regulatory-induced consolidation on banks' performance : case study of an emerging economy
Author: Ibeji, Ngozi Ihuoma
ISNI:       0000 0004 5370 6955
Awarding Body: University of Aberdeen
Current Institution: University of Aberdeen
Date of Award: 2015
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This thesis examines the impact of policy-induced consolidation on banks' performance. The Nigerian bank consolidation of 2004/5 was one of the regulatory reforms initiated by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to tackle the country's deteriorating and weak banking sector by increasing the equity capital of banks and with the aim of making the banks more robust and resilient to shocks. This study utilises Impact evaluation technique to measure the effect of the policy intervention in the banking market, using the data of the Nigeria banks and banking industry from 2000 to 2010. Banks' performance were analysed based on eight performance indicators that served as bench marks with which the degree of success of bank consolidation policy were measured. The eight indicators are thus tied to the policy objectives which primarily are to enhance the bank's profitability, efficiency and riskiness. The measure of change in bank performance post-policy provides some informative evidence about the impact of the policy intervention. Methods of assessment therefore measure the change in performance of the banks (broadly classified into 3 distinct groups based on their mode of consolidation) in the post-policy period and compare it with their pre-policy performance, examining the trends and changes and making inferences based on appropriate statistical tests. Our analysis provides evidence that the policy-induced consolidation through bank recapitalisation has significant impact on most of the banks' performances. We find that policy effect on banks' performance is mixed; while some outcomes are in accordance with the policy objectives of enhancing profitability, efficiency and riskiness of the banks, others are contrary to the objectives. Some results also suggest that the policy did not have significant effect on the banks' performance. The research findings underscore the importance of time in measuring 3 performance change, as well as mode of consolidation, as they influence bank performance and determine the extent to which possible gain from consolidation would be realised and by extension the policy objectives achieved. This is because, apart from mode of consolidation, the policy effects on bank's performances were found to be largely affected by time, that is, whether the assessment is short term or medium term. For instance, the effect of the policy in all the banking group's risk performance indicators within the first two years (short-term) post-policy, was found to be positive (improved), while the policy effect changed significantly and adversely when the measurement was extended to five years post-policy period (medium term). Similarly, our results indicate that the policy effects on the banking group's performances differ substantially. Other factors also shown to influence the policy effects on banks' performances include: bank ownership, size and the number of banking firms in a consolidated bank. However, we find strong evidence that contrary to the general notion that bank consolidation leads to concentration of market, Nigeria policy-induced bank consolidation did not result in concentrated market rather it lowered banking market concentration, because it created relatively equal-sized banks in the post-policy period. Also we are able to distinguish in our analysis between the changes in banks performance that were as a result of the policy from the changes that would have occurred anyway, by estimating the change in performance in the post-policy as a result of persistence of banks performance in the pre-policy period, and this was found to be positive and statistically significant especially for the standalone and the merged group's profit returns.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available
Keywords: Banks and banking ; Bank mergers