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Title: Analysing Escherichia coli 0157 outbreaks in Scotland, Canada and the United States of America
Author: Snedeker, Kate Grayston
Awarding Body: University of Edinburgh
Current Institution: University of Edinburgh
Date of Award: 2008
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It was found that most outbreak and case trends between 1996 and 2004 in Scotland, 1996 and 2003 in Canada, and 1998 and 2004 in the United States could be described using simple linear models. In each of the three countries, the inability to fit simple linear models to particular trends could generally be ascribed to the effect of one or two disproportionately large outbreaks, which tended to act as outliers in models, and to low number of data points when data was split by mode of transmission. In Scotland there were statistically significant decreases over time in the number of sporadic cases, the number of foodborne cases and the number of ill case per outbreak, while in United States, the trend in the number of ill cases from outbreaks decreased statistically significantly. Lastly, in Canada, a statistically significant increase exists in the trends in the number of outbreaks, both overall and in those spread person to person and by water. When the trends in the number of outbreaks, ill cases and outbreak size were compared between countries there were few statistically significant differences. The analyses of the trends provide the first statistical analysis of temporal trends in outbreaks within countries and one of the very first comparisons of E. coli O157 between countries. Analyses of the primary and secondary cases in outbreaks suggested that approximately 19% of outbreak cases are secondary. In addition there were very few statistically significant differences in secondary or primary case characteristics between countries, with the results suggesting that median age and mode of secondary transmission, but not country are important in determining the rate of secondary cases in an outbreak.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available