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Title: Development, validation and application of an ozone model for the UK
Author: Strong, Jonathan
Awarding Body: Lancaster University
Current Institution: Lancaster University
Date of Award: 2011
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Prior to 2003, ozone modelling in the UK was limited to a few models, mainly covering larger domains. As understanding of the impacts of tropospheric (or ground-level) ozone increased during the late 20th century, reductions in anthropogenic ozone precursors were proposed and implemented throughout Europe. Additionally, the extreme heat-wave of August 2003 resulted in intense ozone episodic conditions which may become more frequent under a changing climate. Hence there was a need to develop ozone models specifically for the UK to improve understanding of ozone, elucidate its origins and assess the impacts of abatement measures. The thesis describes the development of the Lagrangian Edinburgh Lancaster Model for Ozone (ELMO) into two distinct versions which model the summertime ozone climate (ELMO-vl) and specific ozone episodes (ELMO-v2). ELMO-vl has been used to model the UK's ozone climate for 1995 and 2004 and to simulate the impacts of proposed precursor emissions reductions. The most intense episode of 1995 has been reproduced by ELMO-v2 with analysis showing that most of the episode's precursor emissions originated from continental Europe. A new pan-European biological volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions inventory has been incorporated into both ELMO versions, and used to evaluate the importance of biogenic emissions on UK ground-level ozone concentrations. In typical summertime conditions, about 4% of ozone is attributable to BVOC emission, but this can increase to 37% in episodic conditions; again most is of continental origin. Finally, ELMO-v2 was used to reproduce the intense ozone episode (August 2003) recorded by the TORCH campaign at Writtle; attribution analysis indicated varied origins of ozone throughout the episode. Ozone in the UK is typically VOC~sens itiv e. but ELMO~v2 has shown that temperature rises reduce VOC~sensitivity towards increasing NOx~sen s itivity ; hence NOx emission controls will also have to be considered during the 21st century.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available