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Title: Interpersonal affective forecasting
Author: Sanchez, Janice Lynn
ISNI:       0000 0004 5914 4930
Awarding Body: University of Oxford
Current Institution: University of Oxford
Date of Award: 2014
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This thesis investigates individual and interpersonal predictions of future affect and explores their relation to implicit theories of emotion, prediction recall, debiasing, and focalism. Studies 1, 2, and 3 assessed affect predictions to upcoming reasoning tests and academic results, and Studies 4, 5, and 6 concerned predictions for self-identified events. The first study investigated the influence of implicit theories of emotion (ITE; Tamir, John, Srivastava, & Gross, 2007) on impact bias and prediction recall manipulating ITE between participant pairs who predicted and reported their affective reactions to feedback on a test of reasoning skills. Neither impact bias nor recalled predictions were affected by the manipulation. Recalled affect predictions differed from original affect predictions, but were not influenced by experienced affect. Study 2 further investigated the effects of target event timing on impact bias and affect prediction recall. The results showed no differences between individual and interpersonal impact biases across conditions. Again, recalled predictions differed from original predictions, and were not influenced by experienced affect. Study 3 investigated the influence of prior information about impact bias on interpersonal affective forecasting involving real-world exam results. The results demonstrated no differences in predictions due to information, however, significantly less unhappiness was predicted for participants’ friends compared to self-predictions. Study 4 examined the effect of different de-biasing information on affective predictions. The results demonstrated no differences in affective predictions by condition and found that participants’ ITE were not associated to affect predictions. Study 5 examined individual and interpersonal affect predictions using a between-subjects design in place of the within-subjects design. The results demonstrated no differences between the affect predictions made for self and for friends, and ITE were not associated with predictions. Study 6 examined the impact bias in interpersonal affective forecasting and the role of focalism. The results demonstrated distinctions between individual and interpersonal affecting forecasting with individual impact bias for positive reactions for negative events and individual and interpersonal reverse impact bias for calm emotional reactions to positive events. Immune neglect was found not to be associated with predictions. Overall, the studies found evidence for similar individual and interpersonal predictions which are resistant to influence.
Supervisor: Parkinson, Brian Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available
Keywords: Psychology ; Emotion ; Experimental psychology ; Interpersonal behaviour ; Memory ; Social cognition ; Social psychology ; Islamic art ; Interpersonal affective forecasting ; Affective forecasting ; Impact bias ; Implicit theories of emotion ; biased recall ; focalism ; debiasing