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Title: The feasibility of multisectoral dynamic macroeconometric modelling of the British interwar economy
Author: Banasik, John Leszek
Awarding Body: University of Edinburgh
Current Institution: University of Edinburgh
Date of Award: 1992
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This thesis proposes and describes construction of an industrially disaggregated macroeconomic model of the interwar British economy. It then demonstrates aspects of its feasibility in terms of available and potentially available data. The proposed model is both dynamic (incorporating delayed reaction) and multisectorial (based on an input-output model). To date there is only one other such model for the United Kingdom, and no such model is available for a historical period. Such a model would accommodate historical analysis, economic experimentation, and various types of model optimisation. Before demonstrating the feasibility of constructing such a model, a selection of key historical issues is considered. These illustrate the tendency of historians to analyse economic developments with reference to industry-specific detail. This tendency makes a multisectoral model vital to the analysis of the period on historians' own terms. A second chapter than describes the major facilities of such a model in order to suggest that its flexibility ought to appeal to economists in their own right. This description also provides an occasion to enumerate the data needs of such a model. In the remaining chapters two aspects of feasibility are considered. The availability or potential availability of time series that are compatible with an input-output model is the first aspect. The second is that these data are compatible with the one particular input-output model that is available. Industrially disaggregated time series for consumer spending and for fixed investment are provided, and the development of similar series for exports and government spending is discussed as well. Other industrially disaggregated series such as those dealing with factor incomes and factor adjustment have long been available. The major findings are that there is sufficient detail in underlying estimates to adapt existing time series into the required final demand time series, and that the 1935 values of these series agree well with corresponding values that appear on the periphery of the input-output model constructed by Tibor Barna.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available