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Title: Future demand for selected industrial commodities
Author: Jones, S.
Awarding Body: University College of Swansea
Current Institution: Swansea University
Date of Award: 1986
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Analyses have been made of the future patterns of demand for three distinctly different products, namely, gallium arsenide (GaAs) semiconductor materials, magnetic recording media and cement. These products differ widely in terms of the world tonnage production levels, the cost/kilogram and the time scale over which these products have been used commercially. As a result, entirely different forecasting procedures must be adopted to estimate future demand. Thus, extensive historical data is available on production, consumption and trade in cement so that 'intensity of use' methods can be used to predict demand to the year 2000. In contrast, since detailed commercial data does not exist for new products such as magnetic recording media and GaAs semiconductors, it is necessary to employ Delphi procedures based on expert opinion in these fields and, since the expected errors are larger than those with established statistical techniques, the forward projection must be limited to the mid 1990's. The following conclusions could be drawn from the analysis: (a) Current consumption will grow from 878 million tonnes in 1981 to 1.5 billion by the end of the century, due largely to increased demand in developing countries. This represents an increase in product value to 34 billion by the year 2000. (b) The market for magnetic recording media is estimated to increase from 5 billion in 1981 to over 16 billion by 1992. (c) An even more marked growth in GaAs activity is forecast, with a projected increase from 200 million to over 4 billion in the period from 1981 to 1992.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available