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Title: The modelling of new techno-economic systems
Author: Humphris, P. A.
Awarding Body: University College of Swansea
Current Institution: Swansea University
Date of Award: 1979
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This work presents an attempt to quantify the impact of oil exploration in the Celtic Sea on the economy of the surrounding area. An input-output model is constructed to aid the study with the refinement that it is multi-regional being broken down into Pembrokeshire, the rest of Wales and the rest of the United Kingdom. It is developed from data which is readily available from the HMSO and other well known sources. The effect of oil exploration on any location is likely to be far reaching so the work restricts itself to the study of the early phases of exploration when perhaps only one rig is involved. Two possible situations are studied, that where the rig would be supplied primarily from one area, Pembrokeshire, and the more likely situation with supplies being sent from the whole of the United Kingdom. The model is used to evaluate the changes which might occur in the industrial outputs and employments for both eventualities. The results of these operations are presented in detail. Difficulties which presented themselves in the estimation of the various economic parameters of the model, such as industrial outputs and the demands for their products, are discussed. The construction of the vector of likely oil industry demands also caused problems and these too are examined in depth. It is also concluded that the difficulties in obtaining adequate data are so great that they throw doubt on the usefulness of the 1-0 methodology in situations where immediate once off policy decisions need to be taken.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available