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Title: Forecasting in Nigerian agriculture
Author: Amadi, G. N.
Awarding Body: University College of Swansea
Current Institution: Swansea University
Date of Award: 1978
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In 1975, Laszlo presented a paper on how advance information about basic and critical trends concerning universal human needs, as well as needs due to cultural and developmental factors, could be beneficial in international decision-making at the highest level. This idea has much appeal and forms the 'raison d'etre' of this research. To appreciate and test the full implications of Laszlo's paper, much practical and theoretical work would need to be done. In this research, a partial analysis of some of Laszlo's ideas has been carried out. The work is limited to testing his ideas concerning the building and use of mathematical models of certain sectors and of a particular format. As such its objectives are limited in scope and clearly represent only a part of the work that is necessary to fully assess Laszlo's ideas. In keeping with Laszlo's ideas, a System Dynamics model of the Nigerian agricultural/food sector was built and was used to forecast Nigeria's future food need and domestic food supply in terms of calories and protein over the next twenty-six years. In carrying out this work, some problems were encountered. However, it was found that Laszlo's ideas can in principle be applied successfully to the sector chosen and methods for overcoming some of the problems have been identified. Detailed conclusions have been drawn from this case study and a deeper understanding of the implications of Laszlo's ideas has been obtained. In general, it is recommended that Laszlo's ideas are worth pursuing and should be subjected to further testing in identified areas. Finally and separately from the testing of Laszlo's ideas, the specific model developed for the agricultural/food sector can, in its own right, be of direct use to the Nigerian Government in its current planning. This System Dynamics model together with an analysis of its shortcomings is presented in detail.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available