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Title: Trends and patterns in the climate of Libya (1945-2010)
Author: Ageena, Ismail
Awarding Body: University of Liverpool
Current Institution: University of Liverpool
Date of Award: 2013
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Climate change is one of the most important issues affecting the world at the beginning of the twenty-first century. This thesis explores changes and trends within the principal climatic parameters temperature for 18 synoptic stations, precipitation for 28 meteorological stations and 16 synoptic stations for evapotranspiration inter alia, during the last 66 years (1945-2010) across Libya. Eighteen meteorological stations were selected along the Mediterranean coast where ten inland stations were selected from the North and South Sahara regions. The study period of temperature is divided into two series of equal length (27 years), 1956 to 1982 and 1983 to 2010 are used to assess and provide comparison in rate of change. Significant increases in temperature are identified, with particularly rapid increases in minimum temperature (0.032 °C a-1; 1945-2010). The rates and periods of change are variable across the study period, with a number of stations documenting declining temperatures during the early phase, with significant increases during the second half of the period, while a mix of increasing and decreasing trends in extreme temperature during the last 50 years (1961-2010) are identified. Precipitation was assessed at 16 stations across Libya (1961-2010), with variable results and no clear pattern emerging for Libya as a whole for the total period, though evidence of a decrease in annual total precipitation (-1.95 mm a-1) is found during the second period. Extreme events as consecutive dry days (<1.0 mm d-1), consecutive wet days (≥1.0 mm d-1) and number of precipitation day (≥0.1 mm d-1) were becoming more frequent during the last 33 years (1978-2010). Increasing trends in potential and actual evapotranspiration are found across Libya. The reanalyses data are applied to compare the results from two commonly used reanalysis datasets, with the station data used to examine the reliability of the gridded products and for the station data to estimate the missing and unreliable data. A comparison of the observed climate data (temperature and precipitation), with reanalysis data from two commonly used datasets NCEP/NCAR (1948-2010) and ERA-Interim (1979-2010) identified a generally good agreement for temperature, but poorer representation in precipitation datasets, with stations at higher altitudes witnessing a decrease in the reanalysis data accuracy. The implications of this research are far reaching, impacting on the management and provision of water resources, agriculture and societies.
Supervisor: Morse, Andrew P.; Macdonald, Neil Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available
Keywords: QC Physics