Use this URL to cite or link to this record in EThOS:
Title: Climate change-induced water shortages : improving decision-making in an uncertain future
Author: Harris, Christopher Nicholas
ISNI:       0000 0004 5363 3207
Awarding Body: University of Birmingham
Current Institution: University of Birmingham
Date of Award: 2014
Availability of Full Text:
Access from EThOS:
Access from Institution:
An innovative approach to translating probabilistic UKCP09 weather generator information into a usable and replicable risk-based climate change impacts assessment and a basis for robust adaptation planning in the England and Wales water sector is described. Applying metrics of risk in the form of crossing control curves at a reservoir, quantitative assessments of the extent to which a Water Resource Zone (WRZ) can be considered robust to climate change-induced water shortages given the application of adaptations options are made. It is shown in a case study of the North Staffordshire WRZ that in its current set-up, the system cannot be deemed robust to climate change from the 2030s onwards. Applying demand and supply-side adaptation options to the WRZ increases the robustness of the system to varying extents. The approach used shows that it is possible to make decisions on how the WRZ can be made robust to future conditions by identifying key metrics of risk, and applying an acceptable probability of not satisfying that risk in the future. Furthermore, a novel analysis of two sources of uncertainty involved in climate change assessments is produced in terms of water shortage probability for the first time, and two downscaling techniques are assessed.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available
Keywords: TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) ; TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering