Use this URL to cite or link to this record in EThOS: http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.550100
Title: An empirical investigation of technical analysis in fixed income markets
Author: Jackson, Wong Tzu Seong
ISNI:       0000 0001 3571 6509
Awarding Body: Durham University
Current Institution: Durham University
Date of Award: 2006
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Abstract:
The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the effectiveness of technical analytic indicators in the fixed income markets. Technical analysis is a widely used methodology by investors in the equity and foreign exchange markets, but the empirical evidence on the profltability of technical trading systems in the bond markets is sparse. Therefore, this thesis serves as a coherent and systematic examination of technical trading systems in the government bond futures and bond yield markets. We investigate three aspects of technical analysis. First, we evaluate the profitability of 7,991 technical trading systems in eight bond futures contracts. Our results provide mixed conclusions on the profitability these technical systems, since the results vary across different futures markets, even adjusting for data snooping effects and transaction costs. In addition, we find the profitability of the trading systems has declined in recent periods. Second, we examine the informativeness of technical chart patterns in the government benchmark bond yield and yield spread markets. We apply the nonparametric regression methodology, including the Nadaraya-Watson and local polynomial regression, to identify twelve chart patterns commonly taught by chartists. The empirical results show no incremental information are contained within these chart patterns that investors can systematically exploit to earn excess returns. Furthermore, we find that bond yield spreads are fundamentally different to price series such as equity prices or currencies. Lastly, we categorize and evaluate five type of price gaps in the financial markets for the first time. We apply our price gap categorisation to twenty-eight futures contracts. Our results support the Gap- Fill hypothesis and find that some price gaps may provide additional information to investors by exhibiting returns that are statistically different to the unconditional returns over a short period of time. ՝In conclusion, this thesis provides empirical evidence that broadly support the usage of technical analysis in the financial markets.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID: uk.bl.ethos.550100  DOI: Not available
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