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Title: Trends and variability in discharge of the Severnaya Dvina and the Sukhona (north-west Russia), 1882-2004, and there links with climatic variability
Author: Schmitz, Niko
Awarding Body: University of Reading
Current Institution: University of Reading
Date of Award: 2007
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Abstract:
This thesis investigates the long-term changes and shorter-term variability in monthly, seasonal, and arL'1ual discharge between 1882 and 2004 of two rivers, the Severnaya Dvina (SD) and the Sukhona (SU), draining north-western Russia, and links these changes to climatic variability. The Severnaya Dvina is one of the largest rivers of the lUetic Ocean basin and changes in its discharge can potentially affect the Thermohaline Circulation. The SU is a tributary to SD and results have been used to corroborate findings obtained for SD. It has been suggested by previous studies that discharge of the rivers draining the Eurasian sector of the Arctic basin has significantly increased. However, these studies started during one afthe warmest and driest periods on record in the 930s. Analysis of the discharge records of the SD and the SU has shown that that there has been no long-term, linear change in discharge. Strong interdecadal variability characterises both records and a number of significant shifts from lower to higher discharge occurs. The early part of the records (1882 - the early 1930s) is characterised by high annual discharge with many strong positive anomalies. A period of low discharge started in the dry 1930s and continued until the early 1970s. The last decades were characterised by average annual discharge. The main implication from this study is that freshwater inflow trom European Russia into the Arctic Ocean has not changed since 1882. Oscillations in regional climate and large-scale atmospheric circulation (telecop..nection patterns) drive discharge variability. There are close causal links between variability in regional precipitation, air temperature, snow cover, evaporation, and discharge. Variability in teleconnection indices (most importantly North Atlantic Oscillation, Scandinavian and East Atlantic Jet pattern) explains between 13% (summer) and 48% (winter) variance in seasonal discharge. Construction of regression models simulating hydrological variability using climatic variables shows close agreement between modelled and observed values of summer, autumn, and winter discharge of the SD
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: University of Reading, 2007 Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID: uk.bl.ethos.487100  DOI: Not available
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