Modelling natural gas and LNG trade in the Mediterranean
This thesis looks at the natural gas market to France, Italy and Spain by proposing an econometric model for the consumption of gas in the residential and industrial sectors of these countries and a discreet choice model for the decision making of investment in import infrastructure and partner choice. Results from the above work is integrated in an object oriented model aiming to generate benchmarks on trade flows to France, Italy and Spain. The thesis also looks at the prospects for the LNG market and critically discusses the problematic of security of supply with liberalisation of markets against the background of changes within the Mediterranean market. Primary information and analysis is an initial contribution of the thesis. The thesis also contributes in terms of the results in the consumption modelling, including the effect of weather on residential gas consumption. Also, the discreet choice model shows a clear pattern in decision making pre-gas liberalisation in Europe and shows, numerically, the drive towards diversification of partners. Finally, the object-oriented model shows scenario driven benchmarks for the choices of partners, suggesting, inter-alia, an even supply for France, an over-supply for Italy and an under-supply for Spain.