A model of the construction project selection and bidding decision
The thesis considers one of the central problems of corporate planning for a construction company, the project selection and bidding decision, and a model is developed for the entire decision environment. The nature of decision systems is examined and considered to consist of the identification, evaluation and selection from a range of options. Corporate decisions are discussed leading to the conclusion that a suitable model is needed. A basic model is proposed in which three outcome criteria consisting of people, money and property are required to be assessed, the values of the outcome criteria being determined by four project characteristics. Some approaches to the solution of multiple criteria problems are examined. The implications of time are next considered and the use of Gottinger's sequential machines examined as a means of modelling the complexities involved. Non-deterministic aspects of the problem are introduced which, together with dynamical considerations, suggest a model of intermediate complexity to be appropriate. The final chapters of the thesis concentrate on some ways in which the computational burden associated with the model can be reduced. The role of decision strategies is examined as a means of identifying the most suitable options. The suitability of probabilistic approaches to modelling non-deterministic aspects is investigated and an empirical analysis of three sets of bidding data is made to examine some possible simplifying assumptions.