An analysis of land use change using GIS and spatial analysis : a case study of the Seoul metropolitan region perimeter
This thesis is concerned with analytical and technical capability in using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and spatial analysis as relevant to the policy challenge of urban fringe management, taking as a case study the Seoul Metropolitan Region Perimeter. The primary purpose of this study is to analyse land use change using the tools of GIS and Spatial Analysis as a spatial decision support system for the task of managing the fragmented development of the urban fringe caused by the policy changes introduced by the Korean government in 1994. The case study analysed in this research shows whether GIS and spatial analysis can be applied to manage and monitor land use change in the urban fringe area at a very detailed level using municipal parcel data which occupies about 80% of administrative affairs, especially at the local government level in Korea. The major determinants of land use change in the study area have been investigated in an attempt to enhance the knowledge of how to provide decision support information for local government in Korea using GIS and spatial analysis. The results of the analysis represent the distribution of land use change from 1994 to 1998, the distribution of parcels with more than 50% of their neighbours in urban use and the transition probability of land use within a GIS, etc. The analysis using GIS and spatial analysis proved to be effective ones when providing the information base for modelling land use change in the urban fringe of the Seoul Metropolitan Region in Korea, to enable informed decisions to be made about land management policies in such areas. The lesson which could be drawn from this study is that a GIS and spatial analysis capacity is quite useful for local government to understand where and why land use change is concentrated, how the pattern of land use has changed, and which areas are susceptible to land use change. This study represented the results of analysis as a map, showed the significant patterns of land use change in the study area, displayed the relationship between neighbouring land use and the pattern of land use change, and suggested the transition probability of land use in the urban fringe in the future. Better understanding of the results may enhance the capability of local government to predict future land use change dynamics and devise more effective land use management strategies. This study brings a new approach to understanding the evolution of development patterns using the methods of combining spatial statistical analysis techniques with GIS application at site level.