An analysis of the security of the Republic of China on Taiwan
Until the publication of 1992 Nien Kuo-fang Pao-kao Shu (1992 National Defence Report, Republic of China) by the Ministry of National Defence, and Kuo-fang Waichiao Pai-pi Shu (White Paper on National Defence and Diplomacy) by the Institute for National Policy Research in 1992, there was no single text or collection of readings, written from a ROC perspective or addressing issues of ROC's concern, which was available for people interested in national security. This dissertation is intended to fill that gap by broadening the theoretical and empirical evaluation of Taiwan's national security to encompass military, political and economic factors. The primary objective of this study is to develop an in-depth understanding of the ROC's approach to national security through an examination both of the dynamics of the numerous security threats confronting Taiwan and of the measures instituted to preserve and enhance national security. To accomplish this the study is divided into six chapters. Chapter 1 will provide a conceptual framework for the analysis of national security. Discussions focus on: the goal of national security; the sources and nature of threats to national security; and the measures to preserve and enhance national security. Chapter 2 considers the military dimensions of Taiwan's security. The following questions will be asked: Under what conditions might the PRC attack Taiwan? Is the PRC capable of gaining control of Taiwan by force? What are the most likely military options to be employed by the PRC should it decide to attack Taiwan? How capable is the ROC of defending itself? And what defence options are available for Taiwan? Chapter 3 examines the impact of the Taiwan independence movement (TIM) on Taiwan's political stability and national security. It centres on the following questions: What are the motives for the pursuit of Taiwan independence? What are both the ROC's and the PRC's attitudes towards the TIM? Will "self-determination" be applicable to Taiwan? And what will be the likely impact of TIM on Taiwan's security? Chapter 4 considers the economic dimension of security. GATT is used as a case study, and the implications of membership for the government and the economy of Taiwan are examined. As with any initiative, many questions have been raised. Because of Taiwan's excessive dependence on exports, its economic success depends in no small way on its ability to keep open its avenues of trade with the outside world. Cutting off those avenues could threaten both Taiwan's economic success and national security. Since survival is essential to Taiwan, in addition to the pursuit of economic growth and development, an independent war capability and sufficient forces are required for safeguarding Taiwan's security. In order to reach this goal, military modernisation is the only option. Thus, Chapter 5 will try to answer the following questions: What are the motives driving Taiwan's accelerated military modernisation? Will Taiwan be able to break through Peking's blockade and procure the weaponry needed for self-defence? Will the economy of Taiwan be able to continuously sustain such huge defence expenditures? Will the armed forces be able to recruit and retain an adequate number of skilled military personnel for the advanced and sophisticated weapons procured? And what will be the potential impacts of cross-Strait arms race on Taiwan Strait stability? In the final Chapter 6 some concluding remarks on the preceding Chapters are drawn. Taiwan should: continue its policy of cautious rapprochement with the PRC; make every effort to prevent any further deterioration in the military balance in the Taiwan Strait; use its economic success as a diplomatic tool to strengthen its relations with countries around the world.