A strategic analysis of carp culture development in Iran
The thesis is concerned with the strategic analysis of carp culture development in Iran, based on an assessment of the supply potential from various forms of carp farming, and on the potential demand, market features and price determinants for carp and carp products. Based on a sample of 188 farms from the three main carp farming provinces plus two case studies, all farmers in all locations and categories made a profit, with feed and fertiliser dominating variable costs. Considerable variation in production costs and profitability was observed. Where some degree of investment and support services have been provided, major increases in output have occurred. The culture of carp is technically possible in a variety of conditions within the country, though, expanding large scale farming mainly depends on reducing the cost of feed and fertiliser. Future targets could be to integrate with other agricultural activities, intensify smaller farms in the Caspian area, and consider developing larger scale commercial production in Khuzestan. A market and consumer survey was conducted, including a sample of 357 consumers in Tehran and Karaj, and 96 sellers in 11 main cities from 6 provinces. Younger consumers had the strongest preferences for ready meals product, while to increase consumption, a rise in income and decline in price will have a greater effect on older groups, larger sized families and educated people. The growing willingness to buy new product forms, particularly by younger consumers, educated groups, inland urban dwellers and high-middle income groups might be expected to increase demand. A range of supply/demand scenarios has been presented, offering projections for the year 2010, suggested target levels of 284,000-348,000t. In broad terms a policy for carp production was described to meet these targets. As in developing markets elsewhere, the traditional wholesale sector may lose its position as multiple retailers and supermarket chains become increasingly important outlets for carp and its products, and opportunities may arise for adding value in a range of ways. Within rural areas, and smaller cities, consumers may also increase their ability to buy fresh fish at the farm gate or at local outlets.