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Title: Shocks, macroeconomic policy and economic growth performance in Zambia, 1964-90 : an econometric analysis.
Author: Kani, Felix C.
Awarding Body: University of Sussex
Current Institution: University of Sussex
Date of Award: 1994
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Public opinion tends to look at Zambia as some mythical land of promise, predestined to enjoy for years to come the same sort of economic bliss as during the copper price boom of 1964 -75. But there can be little doubt that one of the most striking facts of Zambia's economic history since 1964 has been poor macroeconomic performance. Since the mid 1970's Zambia's economy has experienced negative economic growth, high unemployment, rapid inflation and a weak balance of payments. This problem is crucial in the context of two-gap models. This thesis discusses the main facts about this worrying development and advances a line of argument which may well account for most of the observed facts. Prior to the Third Republic Zambian politicians tended to blame external forces for the current problems. My main contention is that that is wrong Economic difficulties arose from a combination of policy failures: growth of 'nonmarketable output', the government's politically induced tendency for crisis management, coupled with its well known propensity to delay taking corrective action, against a background of difficult initial conditions. However, since this is a thesis, both the scope and the method of investigation are limited by the time allowed for the study. What we do is to use historical data and use econometric analysis to shape my arguments, and to make them plausible. Inadequate domestic savings reflected in investment slumps, coupled with foreign exchange shortages, are shown to be the ultimate constraint on economic growth performance. The new government's liberal attitude and the fact that there is export potential in the economy offers some hope for success but the thesis draws attention to the structural rigidities which will remain a major constraint to export diversification in the short to medium term. In the long run, non-traditional exports would have to grow by some 30 percent annually if they were to become the new engine of growth. We stress that success will depend crucially on the government's macroeconomic policies being both conducive to the promotion of investment spending and supportive to the objective of restoring viability in the balance of payments.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available
Keywords: Rural-urban migration; Foreign exchange Commerce