The economic consequences of ethno-national conflict in Cyprus : the development of two siege economies after 1963 and 1974
This thesis examines the economic aftermath of ethno-national conflict in a small European economy. Events in 1963 and 1974, led to the de facto division of a small nation-state, ethnically and geographically. Since the conflict, the different communities have remained on a war footing, having had no normal communications. For each, one of these watersheds is perceived as an economic catastrophe. The effect of arbitrarily dividing an already small economy was significant. It has been argued, however, that the large-scale uprooting of one community was seized on as a development opportunity, so the thesis examines the recovery mechanisms employed by both communities and assesses their relative economic impact. In a comparative context, economic growth and development are compared before and after de facto division, both across the ethnic division and with similar small and regional economies that have, in the period, largely retained conflict within the politicai process. Despite Problems, economic growth both sides of a UN Buffer Zone compare favourably with ali of the selected peer economies. However, with both communities having a clear perception of the cost of division, a dynamic model has been created to determine a benchmark for all-island, integrated economic growth. How would the economy have performed, if growth had not been disrupted by ethno-national conflict? How sustainable are two competing, non-communicating economies, sharing one small Mediterranean island?