Labour market flows and labour market policies in the British Isles, Poland and Eastern Germany since 1980
This thesis utilizes flow analyses of the labour market in order to examine two key issues. First, to asses the effectiveness of active labour market policies in Britain, Ireland and Poland. Secondly, it allows us to characterize and quantify movements between labour market states which have been occurring on an unprecedented scale in economies undergoing transition. Chapters 1 and 2 investigate whether active labour market policies in Britain and Ireland have been instrumental in curing or preventing partial hysteresis due to long-term unemployment. In models of the determination of overall and duration-specific outflow rates from unemployment, the predictive power of active measures variables is tested. Chapter 3 uses the 'lista 500' panel data set to test the hypothesis that after the decentralizing reforms of the early eighties simple models of profit maximization can explain labour adjustment by large Polish enterprises. Chapter 4 traces the build up of unemployment in Poland by characterizing the composition and determinants of flows between various labour market states. Traditional flow analysis is amended by dividing the state employment into the sub-states, private and state sector employment, and by emphasizing the institutional framework unique to the Polish labour market in its first stage of transition. In Chapter 5 a unique panel data set is used to quantify labour market transitions in Eastern Germany in the first year after unification. Multinomial logit regressions are employed to highlight the determinants of the estimated transition rates. The applicability of standard models of labour market transitions to labour markets in transforming economies is also tested. Chapter 6 uses Voivodship-level aggregate panel data to evaluate passive and active labour market policies in Poland which took shape in 1991 and 1992. We also test for the existence of a well behaved matching technology in the Polish labour market. The methodology of Chapters 1 and 2 is modified to account for the panel nature of the data.